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State of the Union

News/Business. Candy Crowley. (2012)

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Ohio 12, Biden 10, Joe Biden 9, Romney 7, Michael Nutter 5, America 5, Kasich 4, Ted Strickland 4, Schwab 4, Mr. Romney 4, Obama 4, Us 4, Colorado 4, Citi 3, Humana 3, Ryan 3, Gm 3, Strickland 3, Jessica Yellin 3, Philadelphia 3,
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  CNN    State of the Union    News/Business.  
   Candy Crowley.  (2012)  

    October 7, 2012
    9:00 - 10:00am PDT  

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i'm glad someone said it. that's it for this edition of "reliable sources." i am howard kurtz, check us out on monday, go to itunes and get the podcast or audio version. state of the union with candy crowley begins now. denver in the rearview mirror as the campaign trail leads to danville, kentucky and men who would be just a heartbeat away. today this week's vp debate. the young gun republican versus the veteran democrat. >> all those policies in aere eight years, they have doubled the national debt. >> mitt and i are going to take on this challenge. we're going to confront this debt crisis. we're going to fix this problem. >> a preview of ryan versus biden from the prism of friends. republican party chairman and then philadelphia mayor michael nutter. >> hello, ohio. >> i love ohio.
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>> and sizing up the crown jewel of battlegrounds with ohio state attorney general mike dewine and former ohio governor ted strickland. plus, the politics of numbers. explaining the jobs report and weighing its impact with moody's analytic chief econost mark zandi and douglas holtz-akin, and white house correspondent jackie kol linz, and cnn's chief white house correspondent jessica yellin. i'm candy crowley. and this is "state of the union." it was not unanimous, but there was overwhelming consensus among viewers and pundits that mitt romney shined in denver's debate season opener and the president did not. the new yorker magazine summed it up with a cover cartoon of romney debating an empty chair. the captain "mitt stands alone." campaigns are only as good as their last news cycle, so on to danville, kentucky, and thursday night's battle of the number twos. joining me now are philadelphia mayor michael nutter, a long-time friend of joe biden,
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and republican party chairman reince priebus. and mayor nutter, stand by with me, and i want to get to the party chairman, and we'll be back with you. mr. chairman, thank you for joining us. i want to talk about the great burden of great expectations. there was a cnn poll, and who is going to win the vice presidential debate? the answer was biden, 39%, ryan, 55%. in many ways this mirrors what happened to the presidential debate? everyone thought president obama would win, so there's great expectations here for ryan. how much of a microscope do you think there will be on him? >> i'm not so sure about that. i mean, i don't dispute your polling there, but i think most people understand that joe biden has been debating for a long time, since the early 1900s. >> he knows his stuff. >> right. i think what you see, though, in some of that polling is that some of the, you know, joe biden as of late put his foot in his mouth a few times in very public
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ways. he said that the middle class was crushed under, you know, the policies of obama and biden, and he said some things that were problematic. however, paul is a smart guy. he has committed his life to understanding the problems of our economy, presenting a plan for the american people, so i think that paul is going to do -- going to do a great job, but i also think it's very important for people to understand, and i think people realize that joe biden is a governmented orator, he is very good at rhetoric, and i think is he very relatable so i think it's two different people, and i think it's going to be a great night. >> have you talked to ryan at all about his debate performance, what he needs to do, that whole thing? >> sure. paul is one of my very good friends. i talk to paul all the time about a lot of different things, but i think he is taking it very seriously.
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sure. i think both parties should be nervous. i mean, it's a big night. it's a big -- it's always going to be a big night. >> do you think it makes a difference? there are a lot of people who say, look, the debates are a side show. it's all about the top guys. do you think that ryan has to keep the momentum going from what was widely seen as a mitt romney win in denver? >> we had a od week last week. there's no doubt about it. we have to have a good week this week and the week after, and i think we take it one day at a time. you know, i don't know, i think that the vp debates are very important. you saw in our presidential primary season, candy. we had, what, 22 debates, and at every one of these debates, whether it was on cnn or fox or whatever the station, we had broken records for a primary debate. people enjoy these debates. i would expect a lot of people to be watching. i think paul is going to do a great job, but i also think that joe biden is incredibly gifted when it comes to debating and understanding policy. he is a good orator.
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>> let me ask you about a colorado poll that came out -- university of denver poll that came out right after the debates, and it showed that colorado is certainly a swing state. kind of shrinking. the lead of barack obama 47%. mitt romney, 43%. i want you to focus on this. someone else 4%. how worried about the fact that gary johnson, a libertarian candidate, is probably going to be on all 50 ballots, and the conventional wisdom is he is going to draw from mitt romney and it makes a difference in colorado and it makes a difference in virginia. it will make a difference in north carolina. does that worry you? >> no, it doesn't worry me. they're not going to throw their vote away when we have an election here that's about the future of america. i don't see that happening, candy. this is a widely debated thing in 1980 with john anderson, gary johnson. >> sure, but ross perot made a difference. >> sure. >> they think that perot widely lost. >> we don't have a third party candidate anywhere near the name
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recognition or the popularity of ross perot or john anderson. i just don't see that happening. in fact, i see that it's almost a nonfactor, so i'm not worried about it. >> let me ask you about the new economic figures that came out. unemployment dipped below 8%. something i'm sure republicans celebrate as well. does it not undercut what has been the central theme of the republican campaign which was that he has made the economy worse because we are right down looking at an unemployment rate after a really horrible year which you can't blame president obama for in totality his first year that he inherited this big mess. now it's down to 7.8%. doesn't that show that he is on the right trajectory and kind of undermining the central argument for you? >> oh, i don't think so. you know, it's like this, candy. if you are getting blown out in a football game but you are scoring field goals once a quarter, you can't point to the three points every quarter and say at least we're scoring some
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points. we're still getting clobbered. the fact of the matter is the president and joe biden are getting clobbered on policies they put in place. promised we'd be a heck of a lot better off than today, we're nowhere close. i was in wisconsin yesterday. been in ohio practically every other day. i'll tell you what, people in kenosha, wisconsin, and ohio don't feel better off today than they were four years ago, and they don't think this president has been very good at following through on his promises. that's what this is going to come down to, and i'll tell you what, last week you saw the difference. an unfiltered mitt romney and an unfiltered barack obama. you saw inspiration, heart, preparedness from mitt romney, and you saw a president that came in unprepared, uninspiring. you know what, maybe clint eastwood was right, and i think that's what the american people saw last week. >> let me ask you about the -- we have some idea of the democrats fundraising in september. the totality, the re-election campaign as well as the democratic committee. $180 million in september. that's 1.8 million individual
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donors, 567,000 first-time done ovrz. that's an impressive number. are you going to match it? >> i don't know if we're going to match it, but it is an impressive number. >> are you close? >> i can't tell you that right now, but i will say this. i think we all understand that this race isn't going to come down to money, because we've been very competitive, and if you roll the tape, i have been calling -- i have been saying that president obama is going to raise $1 billion for a year and a half. remember we called them the billion dollar president. well, so it's no surprise to us, and i think we've surprised them by how well we've done at fundraising, but this isn't going to come down to money. this is going to come down to heart. this is going to come down to work on the ground, plans, and i think the fact that this president didn't fulfill his promises. that will undo him, and we'll beat them on the ground and have all the money we need to be prepared. >> republican party chairman, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. next up, i'll talk about vice president biden's philadelphia mayor michael nutter, so what was biden thinking when he said this.
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we are back with michael nutter. mr. mayor, thank you for being here. i wanted to talk to you a little bit about your friend who sometimes makes democrats nervous. he can be inartful when he says things. as he goes into this debate, what's the most important thing you would advise the vice president to do? >> well, candy, thank you. i generally don't advise the vice president, but i heard your segment earlier, and i hope that mr. priebus does advise mr. ryan, first and foremost, just to tell the truth, unlike what we've heard at the republican convention. i think the big thing with vice president biden is that he speaks from his heart. he is an earthy guy. he grew up in scranton. of course, represented the state of delaware for a long, long
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period of time. and i think -- i haven't talked to him, and i didn't see the clip live, but i think all he was really trying to communicate is that the middle class has had some rough times. he is honest about that. progress has been made. i heard you talking earlier, of course, about the jobs numbers. 40 straight months of job growth in the private sector. unemployment now down 7.8%. that's about what it was when president obama came into office in january of 2009. vice president biden is the real deal. he will give it to you straight. communicates in a way that i think connects with people at a real level. >> do you expect him to because there's a lot of democrats out there looking at the president's performance thinking he did poorly that is hoping that joe biden can sort of blunt romney's momentum, which is beginning to show up in the polls. we haven't seen anything truly
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definitive, but we know most people thought that mitt romney won the debate. democrats are looking for biden to blunt that momentum. can he do that? >> of course, joe biden, again, knows how to communicate very, very well. i think when people talk about last week, expectations for president obama are always exceedingly high and it was relatively easy for mr. romney who had an 11th hour conversion. we recall that he is the etch-a-sketch guy that has transformed himself and quite frankly, we always have to wonder which mitt is going to show up. so if you just lay out lie after lie after lie about your own plan as well as what the president has been talking about, of course, you can look good. vice president biden will do very, very well. he knows what has been going on. he is in touch with the american public, and i'm just hopeful mr. ryan will tell the truth. whether it's about medicare and that it's a voucher program,
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that mr. romney and mr. ryan, their health care plan will lead to many uninsured and put people back out. if they have preexisting conditions. >> let me just step back just a minute here about your defense of the president's performance. what is your theory? i mean, it was widely panned, and the thing is if he thought as he said the next day that mitt romney isn't telling the truth, that mitt romney is remaking himself, why wouldn't he say that on the stage? what went wrong there? >> well, again, i'm not in president obama's mind. i was in denver. i was in that audience. you know, as a debater, of course, i've never run for president, but have you to decide do you want to spend all your time all night long refuting someone's lies about
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your record or even about their own, and mitt romney is a guy -- i have never seen this before. he has been on two different sides of his own plan, which, of course, he won't explain, so he can have multiple positions about something that doesn't exist. i think the president wanted to get across his points. he had facts. mr. romney didn't. and, you know, that debate is over, so, you know, i mean, i guess i would only suggest we don't need to debate about the debate. there will be two more, and i fully expect that president obama will get his points across as well as smack back the lies that mitt romney keeps telling. >> let me move you on to something else. we talked a little bit about the new unemployment figures. i want to show you, and i'm sure i don't have to tell you. i want to show our audience. when it comes to unemployment among african-americans, it stands at about 13.4%, which is obviously a lot higher than 7.8%. that is down from september of the year before, but there's a lot of talk that this will depress african-american turnout come november and obviously
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that's part of his base that the president wants to reinvigorate. how can he do that? >> well, i think all americans know that president obama has been working very, very hard to put americans back to work. he has had virtually no cooperation from the republicans in congress and certainly in the house. >> he might get the same kind of congress that he already has though. >> the american public is not going to put up with a close election. the american public is not going to put up with this kind of gridlock in washington, and, again, the -- republicans have to take responsibility for blocking much of the american jobs act and other efforts that the president has put forward. who have seen private sector growth in the jobs area, but we also than we've had state and local government lose over 700,000 jobs and unemployment was already high. before the president came in in the african-american community and the great recession has only
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made that worse, but, as you said, even in the african-american community unemployment is coming down. african-americans are proud. in the country, but many of us are very, very proud of the work that president obama has been doing. african-americans are going to strongly support president barack obama. >> all right. thank you so much. mayor michael nutter, i hope you'll come back. we appreciate it. >> thank you. next up, there's a reason why the campaigns have spent $75 million to win ohio. later, why 114,000 new jobs in september is still not enough. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf.
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so if this an election about the economy, it's worth noting that ohio's jobless rate has dropped from 10.6% in early 2010 to 7.2% last august. there is debate over who gets the credit for that. president obama points to the auto bailout for helping save and create 72,000 jobs in the state. ohio's republican governor john kasik says his policies, including bringing more businesses and manufacturing to the state, have made the difference. the obama and romney campaigns have all but suffocated ohio airwaves with more than $75 million in ads. since june the candidates, their running mates and wives have campaigned in the state 65 times. that's an average of about four visits per week. before mitt romney's well reviewed debate performance, an nbc-wall street journal poll found obama leading romney 51% to 43% among likely ohio voters. can a debate change ohio's democratic drift?
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i am joined by ted strickland and ohio attorney general and romney supporter mike dewine. gentlemen, thank you both. let me sort of kick this off and answer the first question for you. governor strickland, i assume you believe that president obama will win ohio. back that up for me. >> well, most of the polls over the last several months have shown the president with a consistent -- small but a consistent lead, and that lead seems to have widened within the last 30 days. i believe the president is going to win ohio because he rescued the auto industry, which is so important to our state. he passed the recovery act, which is important to me in terms of keeping police officers and firefighters and teachers
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and other people, building infrastructure in our state. plus, you know, candy, the president tells the truth, and quite frankly, i don't think mr. romney is a very truthful person when it comes to talking about the economy and what he plans to do. he says, for example, that the ryan budget is a marvelous budget. it doesn't achieve balance for 30 years. it's not a fiscally responsible budget. it voucherizes medicare, and it privatizes social security, and it cuts medicaid and pell grants and so there are a lot of reasons why i think ohio is trending towards the president. >> let me -- >> i'm sure mike has a different opinion. >> i bet he does, which is why we'll go to him. i will -- you probably don't need much prompting, but i want to throw something into the mix here. these were our flash polls after the debate. cnn flash polls after the debate. the question was who would better handle the economy?
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romney, 55%. obama, 43%. then among debate watchers, who would better handle health care? romney, 52%. obama, 47%. the question is that's who won the debate. is it going to move anything in ohio where polls have shown advantage obama? >> candy, can i jump in here? >> yes, sir. it's your turn. >> romney is going to ohio. romney is going to carry ohio. it's going to be a very, very close race, but this race fundamentally changed wednesday night in ohio. i think it did across the country. tremendous energy now, but i think here's where we were going into the debate. people like -- they said i like the guy, i like his family. he is a good person. he is not doing a very good job.
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the opponent, then the next question is, is the challenger up to it? is he the person we want? frankly, going into wednesday night, people had not answered that second question. romney had not made the sale. i think what you saw wednesday night was the first opportunity that the average person had to see these two candidates head-to-head for an extended period of time, and when they saw that, guess who won? romney won. he looked presidential, he had confidence, he had a plan. he was confident in that plan. the presidt was in a situation where he couldn't defend the last four years. maybe that's not because he is not a good debater. we know he is a good debater. he couldn't defend the last four years because you can't defend it. you can't defend not getting the job done. i think that's -- this has changed. yesterday's one last thing, candy. yesterday we had 150,000 doors being knocked on in ohio.
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we have great energy. the governor is going to win the state. it's going to be close. he is going to win. >> governor strickland, without sort of getting into more debate performance and how the president did or didn't do, do you think that mitt romney perceived as the winner by a large margin picks up steam now in ohio that you all have to push up against? >> well, candy, if i was as rich as mitt romney, i would bet mike dewine $10,000 that the president is going to win ohio. >> better watch that. >> romney did well in the debate, candy. romney did well in the debate. i will admit that, i give him a b-plus on style, but i give him a d-minus on substance and truthfulness. >> you know, why -- >> mitt romney didn't tell the truth. >> president obama didn't challenge him on the stage, which i think probably is what a lot of democrats think the problem was.
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let me ask you about ohio's job numbers. as you know, both of you know, ohio's unemployment rate is lower than the national average. it was 5.4%, governor, when you took office. it hit its high point in 2010. ten points now it's down. by 7.2%. now, i want to just play you what governor kasik, a republican, said at the rnc. >> we've made real progress in ohio in restoring confidence because that's what so much of life is about. we are setting people free in order to build success, but we need a new partner in washington. this relationship is just not working. it is holding us back. >> so governor, first to you. who is responsible for the good economy, or relatively good economy in ohio? >> thank you for playing that segment. governor kasich was not telling
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the truth. he said in that speech that ohio's economy was 38th, i believe, in the nation when he took office. that's not true. we were sixth in the nation in terms of economic job growth. the recovery started in ohio before john kasich became governor. if you look at the data, ohio's unemployment declined 1.6% in 2010. it declined another 1.7% in the first year and a half of the kasich administration. ohio's recovery is due in large part -- it's due in large part to two things, i believe. that's the recovery act which enabled us to stabilize ohio and to stop the free fall and, secondly, candy, it's the auto rescue. one in eight jobs in ohio is related to the auto industry. mitt romney said let detroit go barupt, but today in toledo and in youngstown and in the cleveland area multimillion-dollar investments are being made by gm and chrysler. people are working, and ohio's
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economy is benefitting as a result. >> senator dewine, i want to give you the last word on this. the car industry is a powerful argument. >> candy, if you asked ohioans why ohio is starting to come back, the majority of hawaii and -- ohioans will say governor kasich. he inherited an $8 billion shortfall -- >> no, it was not. >> i didn't interrupt you. i didn't interrupt you. 87 cents -- >> i want you to tell the truth. it was not an $8 billion deficit. >> ted, everybody is lying according to you. $250 million. >> only the republicans. >> auto industry is exceedingly important in the state, but if you look at where ohio has grown in job creation since kasich became governor, it has been in manufacturing. we have had significant growth in jobs. say, 123,000 new jobs.
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those have not been in the job -- in the auto industry. auto industry has not gone up. so if you look at what kasich has done, he's made a real difference. he has the same philosophy and will do the same thing that mitt romney will do as president. lower taxes, less regulation, balance the budget. these are things that make a difference. the other thing that romney will do that the president is not doing and simply, frankly, is incapable of doing, i served with him for two years in the u.s. senate. nice guy. talented. horribly partisan. what mitt romney will do as president is the same thing that ronald reagan did and, frankly, bill clinton did. hold your principles. be tough. in the end you know you have to negotiate, and that's the only way this country can move forward. that is what president romney will do, and that's the president that people saw potential president that people saw in the next president they saw debating the other night.
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>> governor strickland, the last few seconds to you. new polls in ohio, is it going to be a closer race than it has been when we see the results come out? >> of course, ohio cannot be taken for granted, candy, by any candidate or either political party. it will be a very close race. i believe because of the president's saving of the american auto industry, which, in fact is related to manufacturing jobs in ohio, and ohio is coming back, and we're grateful for that, but the president deserves in my judgment the lion's share of t the credit for ohio's economy, and its rebound. >> from ohio governor ted strickland. ohio attorney general and former senator mike dewine, thank you both for being here. up next, making sense to the eyebrow raising jobs report.
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perhaps the september report was the october surprise, at least it was to some conservatives who say the numbers don't add up. 114,000 new jobs were added to the economy in september. that's a fairly lackluster number. more jobs were created in july and august than originally reported, so those numbers were revised up by 86,000. they are all still below the levels needed to sustain a drop in unemployment.
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that's why some people found it odd that unemployment fell by 3/10 of a percent, below the 8% mark to 7.8%. the lowest level in four years. the numbers may have more meaning for the campaign trail than the economy. politically speaking, dropping under 8% was a clear headline and a psychological boost for a president who needed something after his dismal debate appearance. >> this morning we found out that the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since i took office. [ applause ] >> mitt romney countered that 7.8% is nothing to celebrate. >> the reason it's come down is primarily due to the fact that more and more people have just stopped looking for work. >> some conservatives continue to suggest that the president's labor department cooked the jobs report for his political gain, but most experts have roundly slapped down that possibility. numbers and politics with economist mark zandi and douglas
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holtz-akin and jackie of the "new york times" and cnn's chief white house correspondent jessica yellin, next. plus prese. i have a cold, and i took nyquil, but i'm still stubbed up. [ male announcer ] truth is, nyquil doesn't unstuff your nose. what? [ male announcer ] it doesn't have a decongestant. no way. [ male announcer ] sorry. alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms plus has a fast-acting decongestant to relieve your stuffy nose. thanks. [ male announcer ] you're welcome. that's the cold truth! [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus. ♪ oh what a relief it is! [ male announcer ] try new alka-seltzer plus severe allergy to treat allergy symptoms plus sinus congestion and pain. and sounds vying for your attention. so we invented a warning you can feel. introducing the all-new cadillac xts. available with a patented safety alert seat. when there's danger you might not see, you're warned by a pulse in the seat. it's technology you won't find in a mercedes e-class. the all-new cadillac xts has arrived,
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moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi, white house correspondent jackie khan, cnn white house correspondent jessica yellin, and former congressional budget director douglas holtz-akin. we're five minutes into the show now. let me start out by asking you whether you two, whether you both agree that the labor department didn't cook the books, that the question is there a mistake here, or is this correct? were the numbers correct? >> the numbers were collected in a professional way. it's the same procedures used
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every month. it's a statistical anomaly, not a conspiracy. >> it's silly. counterproductive. silly because these are professionals. not politicians. i think it's counterproductive because it speaks to the legitimacy of the political process. i don't think that's good for anybody. >> then let's -- politically can we agree that was a good headline for the president to have? >> yeah. >> how happy were they that morning? >> it's more phew after that debate performance. finally it's a number that was such an important symbolic marker for the president. the most important job number because it's a month out. this is when a lot of people believe that the undecideds make their decision and sort of the opinion solidify and they also make it stop sort of talking about it a little bit. >> yeah. >> one more to go. friday before the election. >> could it go back up. if it can go down, could it go back up? >> i think you could take both the conspiracy theory and send
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them to the timeout corner. this could very well unwind next month. at least in part. that would not be a good news story for the president. >> politics is celebrated by the news cycle. >> there will be a good share of people who is already voted then. 40% or so who early voted in the last election. contrary to what mitt romney had said on friday, this was not -- this was finally a report that wasn't based so much on the unemployment rate going down because more people had quit looking for work. people actually had found jobs. that was the reason for the -- >> but the reality is that employment is growing about 150,000 per month. that's exactly what we've been growing for the past year. past two years. actually since job growth resumed a little over two and a half years ago. almost exactly 150k. we have to look past this month to month variability and get to the underlying trend. >> look at the poll. >> you know, in a normal time, that would be not bad. you know, that would be consistent with the unemployment rate. >> so it's too high? >> i want to play something that romney said saturday and get,
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first of all, your economic take and then the political take. >> it's the number of people. it's the percentage of the american population in the work force were the same today as when he was elected, our unemployment rate would be above 11%. this is inexcusable that a nation that's so prosperous as ours. >> this is the work force has shrunk argument. >> and the numbers are real. labor force paicipation, the fraction of people actually trying to find a job or have a job is at levels we haven't seen since 1981, and so the question becomes how many of those have left the labor force for good pursuits like retirement or to go to school, and how many are just so discouraged they've given up, and if it's really the latter, then we have a lot of ground to cover. >> we know demographics are playing a key role here. we're all getting older. baby boomers are approaching retirement, and they're retiring, so the participation rate that's fallen 2.5 percentage points in the past four or five years, 1.5 percentage points is due to
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simply demographics. regardless of the economy. that would happen regardless of what's going on in the economy, but what percentage point is about a million, million and a half people. they came in, the real unemployment rate wouldn't be 11%, but it would be closer to %. still bad. >> the work force has shrunk. >> oh, yeah. it has. >> is it also true that the numbers that are coming in are sort of lesser jobs, that people -- that these aren't as good a jobs as the ones people got thrown out of. >> i disagree. if you look at the job creation across industries, it's across a lot of industries. i mean, it's everything. professional services, financial services, we see some manufacturing jobs. transportation distribution, and lower paying jobs, retail, leisure, hospitality. that would indicate that we're getting a wide distribution. >> i think the real problem in the recovery has been that all the jobs have not been as good as they should be. people had jobs they haven't seen the real incomes rise. real disposable incomes with spending power. they've risen slowly. it's not a matter of having jobs or not. it did generate some income.
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that's a big problem. >> let me talk to you all because it seems to me that what people take away from this is 7.8%. what does the romney campaign do now rather than go inside the figures as he tried to do and say and say, wait a second, this is isn't what it looks like because it kind of does bolster the president's case that the trajectory is good. what does romney do now? >> well, i think he should continue to stay on the economy. i mean, it's not like it's great, and just, in fact, he is in the past couple of weeks we saw too often or i think for political -- his political benefit where they were digressing from the economy and talking about anything else, and so i think that, you know, just stay on it, because -- you know, for the most part people generally think in campaigns that voters have pretty much made their mind up about the trajectory, the trends in the economy. so that's why these conspiracy theories are sort of funny because if the white house was going to cook the books, they should have started doing so in june or july. >> the thing that shocked me about this campaign to date is we all know what connects our personal stories, and we have
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not heard people on the trail tell a lot of personal stories. romney did it during the debate pretty effectively. if he wants to break through, he probably needs to start telling more stories personal stories and we have not heard personal stories. romney did it pretty effectively during the debate. he should tell more. get away from if numbers and tell the reality. the president needs to be doing more of that as well. it's been one of these very abstract debates where they're talking about a lot of things that have nothing do with people's real lives. >> moody analytics came out and said adding up the votes, the president still on track to win this election. is there anything economically coming up that changes that given that early voting has started and when you look at some of the battleground states, which we brought up, colorado, florida, north carolina, michigan, nevada, all of them as of august still had pretty high unemployment rates. so how do you come to that conclusion? >> we do the modeling by
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electoral college by state. the key state is ohio. ohio's unemployment close to 7%. job growth is much higher than the national average. improvement there is related to the auto industry and, of course, the president can say i saved the auto industry. >> and does regularly. >> why doesn't mitt romney say hold it a second, i did not say, you know, let's tear the auto industry apart and not have an auto industry. >> the president didn't save the auto industry. he saved two companies in a very large industry and did it in a way a lot of people don't like. handed it to unions. this is not a uniform winner if romney is aggressive about it. >> it's pretty effective in ohio, it seems, that bin laden's death, gm is alive thing. >> the auto industry isn't posted as the largest employer. it looks like the rest of the country. it's got financial services,
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health care, and, you know, those are issues that should matter in ohio as well. the largest issue is between now and then, we should worry. worry about oil prices going up, middle east is far from a safe place, and the president has self inflicted problems. budget data coming out, they're never popular. >> i mean if gm and chrysler went down, i think it's clear the entire industry would go down and the industry knew that. they were lobbying for the bailout. you talk to ford, including ford. >> you can see that i want to ask about the debate here. you can see mitt romney did not say let detroit go away. he wanted a managed bankruptcy. much as what happened but he wanted it done with private equity. >> exactly. >> okay. let's talk about the v.p. debate that's coming up. does it matter? >> yes, yes. >> wow. >> i think, again, as we saw with the first presidential debate, for the first time americans will see paul ryan without the distraction of the campaigns, talking to the
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american people, they'll be surprised by what they see. >> i think a lot of people will be tuning in to see how vice president biden tries to make up for the president's belly flop last week. >> yeah. >> and hoping for entertainment value, perhaps, that he makes gaffe. >> when you think back to the 2008 democratic nomination race, there were a lot of people, including myself, who thought joe biden won most of those debates. he was running 2% so it didn't matter. he did a good job. >> quickly, mark. you're got the last word. >> i'm an economist. >> thank you so much, all of you. i appreciate you being here. next up a political viewer's guide to the week. next. ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪
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and, finally, this sunday, we rounded up some of cnn's political junkies again, this time to look at what lies ahead. call it your political viewer's guide. although some people, and they know who they are, veered off topic. >> did you ever hear the term dead cat bounce, trop it high
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enough, it will bounce, even a dead cat? people can look at the romney debate and say all the excitement, is that a real thing. >> you may have known a couple of nights ago, we had a debate. you may have had a chance to see that. >> reporter: does it grow into something or is it a dead cat bounce. >> reporter: i'd be looking for how the president plans to continue to bounce back. will his team which was tight-lipped about the first debate boot camp now talk about a more aggressive strategy. >> i know everybody in the political world is looking ahead to the vice-presidential debate but i actually had a chance to talk to paul ryan about how he prepared, so i want to see if that pays off. >> forget about the guys at the top of the ticket and their running mates, i'm keeping my eye on the surrogates this week. >> you got to admit it takes a brand to do what he did. >> they all have high-profile event this coming week. >> we're going to be keeping a close eye on my home state of massachusetts where elizabeth warren and scott brown are
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facing off in another debate. this has become a nasty contest between these two candidates. >> excuse me. i'm not a student in your classroom. please let me respond, okay? thank you. >> the winner november could help determine which party controls the senate in 2013. >> we're going zoom in right here on the nation's capital. we'll stretch out the map and here is the big question. playoff baseball in washington. how are the nats going to do, candy? >> okay, john. you may have a magic wall but i have a crystal ball. the cardinals will beat the nats. those st. louis roots are hard to cut. they thrive there. i'm candy crowley, have a good week of baseball, politics, and anything else that catches your fancy. if you missed anything, head to itunes. "fareed zakaria gps" is next. for our viewers here in

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